Probabilistic Forecasting

The energy system has to be balanced at all times, a task which requires forecasts in order to properly operate the system. In complex interacting systems, such as renewable energy systems, where parts of the system depend on the weather, climate, and human behaviour, forecasting is challenging and uncertainty plays a significant role. In this research area, we focus on adapting and developing forecasting methods that can be used reliably in complex systems while giving valid estimates about the uncertainty.

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